Moved

The settled floor

What mainstream peer-reviewed work already grants is now stated once, on the page that needs it. The luck arithmetic that goes with it is stated once, on the page that needs that.

Where it went

Four pointers.

The floor was five things: Miyake events, superflares on Sun-like stars, the excursion record, the measured weakening of the field, and the auroral archive that reaches back centuries past the instruments.

All five are argued on the claim, in one table, with the word micronova and its 2022 astronomical use alongside them.

That we have not been safe so much as lucky, the eighty-degree aim window, and the 65 to 72 per cent chance of a Carrington-class hit inside a century are on the calm. The arithmetic behind that figure is runnable on how to check it.

The excursion ladder, rung by rung, is on the record. The field figures, with the frontier's inflated versions corrected, are rows in the numbers.

The claim, and the floor under it →