Choose a narrowly stated research claim and document what would count as success before inspecting test data.
500 Queens / Earthquake/Volcano Prediction
Earthquake/Volcano Prediction
Improve hazard understanding while clearly separating earthquake prediction from monitoring and preparedness.
Follow the connections. Choose your direction.
The need worth working on.
Communities benefit from understandable hazard information, but confident claims about the exact timing of earthquakes can mislead people. The archive combines earthquake and volcano prediction in one title; the venture must separate these different scientific problems and begin with a question qualified geoscientists consider answerable.
What the enterprise could offer.
Build a historical-data teaching or research tool that explains observations, uncertainty and official information routes. For earthquakes, frame work around hazard interpretation, research evaluation or early-warning education rather than promising exact forecasts. A volcano-focused project would need its own monitoring question, relevant observatory expertise and evidence standard.
People to build with
- Geoscience educators
- Emergency-planning learners
- Researchers comparing monitoring approaches
A claim tested against a historical record
Separate training and evaluation periods and compare the claim with a simple baseline.
Include false alarms, missed events and data gaps in the results.
Ask an independent geoscientist to review the explanation and remove language implying a public warning capability.
The first result
A reproducible evaluation, an accessible uncertainty explainer and a list of unsupported claims rejected.
What needs to be demonstrated.
Research frontier
The starting evidence
USGS states that reliable prediction of a major earthquake's time, location and magnitude has not been achieved.
The open question
Whether a proposed signal adds any out-of-sample information beyond established hazard or monitoring approaches.
The next measurement
Predefined performance on unseen records, including the cost of false reassurance and frequent false alarms.
Build the means to deliver.
Useful capabilities and resources
- Geoscience expertise
- Public historical records
- Independent statistical review
A possible business model
Educational materials or transparent research-analysis services are possible starting offers. An operational warning product would need much stronger evidence and authority.
A leadership decision to practise
Commit to publishing a null result when the proposed method fails, even if the original story is attractive.
People, consequences and decisions.
- Coincidence can be mistaken for prediction.
- A research display could delay attention to official advice.
- Combining different hazards can conceal invalid assumptions.
If equality were being designed now...
- What information do women coordinating homes, care or local services need when geological conditions are uncertain?
- Can those affected define the costs of false reassurance and repeated alerts, rather than leaving success to a model score?
Begin with women's own experiences across bodies, ages, cultures and places. Invite disagreement and choose a practical change together.
Create a women-led design brief →Build your learning council.
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From the original suggestion to a working brief.
Original concept from 500 Queens VC NEW Long, slide 15; current context from the September 2026 planning document. This expanded brief and pilot are proposed development, not evidence of an operating enterprise or confirmed partnership.
Original title: Earthquake/Volcano Prediction. The pilot, business model and learning connections on this page are proposed developments of that original idea.