Choose a well-documented historical interval and one user decision the tool is intended to support.
500 Queens / Space Weather Modelling
Space Weather Modelling
Make space-weather observations easier to compare, explain and connect to operational decisions.
Follow the connections. Choose your direction.
The need worth working on.
People who depend on radio, navigation, satellites or power systems need understandable information about changing space conditions. The enterprise opportunity is not to promise that every disturbance can be predicted. It is to help a particular user interpret observations, uncertainty and the actions already defined by their responsible operators.
What the enterprise could offer.
Build an evidence-led dashboard or briefing workflow for one use case, with observation times, data provenance and uncertainty visible. Compare a simple historical baseline with any experimental model. Women entering science and data leadership could practise choosing metrics, explaining limitations and deciding whether a new model adds useful information.
People to build with
- Space-weather learners and researchers
- Radio or satellite service planners
- Infrastructure analysts
Replay a historical event
Assemble public observations with their source, units, timestamps and missing-data notes.
Compare the existing reference approach with a simple experimental model using the same evaluation window.
Ask a domain expert and intended user whether the display changes understanding without overstating certainty.
The first result
A reproducible event replay, model comparison and user-tested explanation of uncertainty.
What needs to be demonstrated.
Research frontier
The starting evidence
Space-weather observations and forecasting services exist; this venture has not demonstrated an improved prediction method.
The open question
Whether the proposed approach adds useful lead time or decision value beyond established services.
The next measurement
Out-of-sample error, false alerts, missed events and the effect on the selected user decision.
Build the means to deliver.
Useful capabilities and resources
- Public observation records
- Space-physics expertise
- Reproducible analysis and computing
A possible business model
An educational analysis service or specialist workflow may be viable before a forecasting product. Any operational service needs independently assessed reliability.
A leadership decision to practise
Set the evidence threshold for a forecast claim and preserve negative results when a simpler model performs better.
People, consequences and decisions.
- Historical fitting can exaggerate future performance.
- Missing observations may look like calm conditions.
- A research display can be mistaken for an operational warning service.
If equality were being designed now...
- Can women working in regional operations interpret uncertainty without a specialist beside them?
- Who decides when a space-weather alert is worth interrupting a shift, and whose workload informs that choice?
Begin with women's own experiences across bodies, ages, cultures and places. Invite disagreement and choose a practical change together.
Create a women-led design brief →Build your learning council.
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From the original suggestion to a working brief.
Original concept from 500 Queens VC NEW Long, slide 15; current context from the September 2026 planning document. This expanded brief and pilot are proposed development, not evidence of an operating enterprise or confirmed partnership.
Original title: Space Weather Modelling. The pilot, business model and learning connections on this page are proposed developments of that original idea.