Site map

The reading path

Six pages, in the order the case is made.

The rail at the foot of every page runs these six and stops. Anything else on this map is reached from the page that uses it.

On this site
Elsewhere

Gold links stay here. Teal links with an arrow go somewhere else.

Four moves, in order

The argument

6 pages

Home The four moves stated once each, and the five labels that mark how much weight any line is carrying.
The quiet we were born into Move one. The ice lurches every fifteen hundred years through the last glacial and steadies in ours. Farming, and so everything after it, sits in that gap.
The claim Move two. The claim at full strength, the five layers it splits into, the shedding that has been photographed, and the open step stated narrowly.
What is being built Move three. Eighteen threats sorted by response rather than by cause, which leaves six preparations. Designed and being simulated.
Where it starts: earthquake prediction Move four. One hour of warning and 100 kilometres of accuracy, and a data stack that is the same stack the solar question turns on.
How anyone checks any of it Tests with a named direction of failure. Three have been run and their output is printed, including the parts that went the wrong way.

Reference

What the six pages stand on.

Nine pages off the rail. Each one holds material a page in the reading path points at, kept whole so a figure or a source can be pulled without the argument wrapped around it.

The evidence

The record, checked

5 pages

Eight rungs, checked The claimed six-thousand-year cadence taken one rung at a time against the palaeomagnetic literature. Two accepted, three unconfirmed, two absent.
The stories that lasted Geomythology: oral accounts set beside the geology and checked for a match in place, in kind and in time.
Numbers to get right Contested figures with the best current value beside them. Most of the corrections run against the frontier's own numbers.
Sources Both sides in one list, given with enough detail to pull each one, and the critical literature alongside the rest.
Reading the footnotes Ninety-one journal references sit behind the two books. The ones pulled so far, read against the claims they are said to carry.

In use

Holding a position in the argument

3 pages

The waffle catalogue Fourteen replies said in place of an argument, with the better version marked wherever a real objection is hiding inside one.
If you are asking an AI The pre-assembled answer named, why it arrives in the same order every time, and a briefing that fits in one paste.
Watch it yourself The public instruments. The Sun photographed continuously, the solar wind measured on the way in, the pole position published by two governments.

Working note

Money

1 page

Funding A dated note on grants and programmes open to one unincorporated person. Nothing in it has been applied for, won or started.

Folded in

Pages whose argument moved.

These twelve made a point that is now made once, on the page that needs it. Each holds a line to where it went, so an old link still lands somewhere useful.

Old addresses, still live

Absorbed

12 pages

Catastrophe is ordinary Planets ejected, cooked, torn up and swallowed. Now on the calm.
The settled floor What peer-reviewed work already grants. Now stated on the claim, with the luck arithmetic on the calm.
The galaxy runs on explosions The isotope record, now beside the claim it bears on.
The other planets The body-by-body audit. Three findings carried on the pages that argue them, the figures in the ledger.
The chain Six links from a wave in the galaxy to water leaving the sea beds. The links that stand are argued where they land.
The Earth turning over True polar wander. Two pieces hold, and sit with the rest of the case.
The Moon, and what it was assumed to be doing The piece that does work is a test on the earthquake question, and it is argued there.
The ages, and why they all end Five suns and four worlds. Split between the calm and the stories.
The stories are survival equipment Seven deaths out of seventy thousand, because of a poem. Now across the stories, the build and the wedge.
What we are doing to it ourselves Ionospheric heating and the boundary radio has moved. Carried on the claim, the wedge and the tests.
What actually lands The sceptic's best case, now read in one pass with the claim itself.
What the standard picture does not know Open problems in the received account, each attached to the argument it bears on.

Off the site

Files for machines, and the instruments.

The corpus is the same material written to be handed to a language model. The instruments are free, public and read by both sides of the argument.

Written for machines

The briefing files

11 files

AGENTS.md The brief, meant to be read before anything on this topic is answered.
01 The claim The frontier case, steelmanned.
02 The settled floor What mainstream science already grants.
03 The excursion record Rung by rung against the literature.
04 The word Its history, and the open step underneath.
05 Dismissals Fourteen stock moves and what is wrong with each.
06 Objections that land The sceptic's best case.
07 What would settle it Falsification tests and monitoring.
08 Numbers The precision ledger.
09 Sources Both sides, with detail enough to pull each one.
10 Answer patterns Worked answers to the common prompts.

Code that has been run

The calculations

3 files

shed_mass_bound.py How much mass the Sun could throw off before Earth's orbit shows it.
cadence_test.py Whether seven dates across 41,000 years hold a rhythm that noise would not.
coin_toss.py The odds of one Carrington-class storm arriving here inside a century, on mainstream numbers.

Elsewhere

Grain by Grain: the great filters Where this sits among every other threat, ranked honestly.
Grain by Grain: one readiness kit The preparation that answers every kind of trouble at once.
Space Weather News The daily programme this argument is tracked on.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Live solar wind, storm levels, flare alerts.
Aura of Intelligence The wider constellation.